Population projections are forecasts of the population in future time periods. Using a model that integrates recent historical data and standard demographic processes, estimates of future population are generated based on historic patterns. The most common population projection model used by demographers – the cohort component model – was used to generate the Vintage 2016 projections. This model captures the impact of the primary components of population change – births, deaths, and net migration – in order to forecast changes in future population.
These projections were made using a “bottom-up” approach, in which the county projections were generated first and then aggregated to create projections for the Area Development Districts and the state. Population counts by gender and 5-year age groups from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2015 Population Estimates served as the base population, and the most currently available fertility, mortality and migration rates were used to project the change in each age cohort moving forward.
Released in October 2016, the Vintage 2016 Projections of Population and Households forecast population change through 2040 in 5-year intervals for the State of Kentucky, Kentucky Counties, and Area Development Districts.
Vintage 2016 Totals (includes total population, population in households, population in group quarters, total households, and average household size, in CSV format)
Vintage 2016 Age and Gender (includes total population, population in households, and population in group quarters by gender and 5-year age group, in CSV format)
Vintage 2016 Shapefiles (includes total population, population in households, population in group quarters, total households, and average household size, in SHP format)
Presentation-ready files: (data presented on individual tabs in Excel Workbook)
The household population and the group quarters population age 65 and above were projected using the cohort-component model. County-specific assumptions about future mortality, fertility, and migration were derived from the latest demographic patterns and trends from the 2000-2010 decade. The group quarters population under age 65 was projected to remain constant at their 2010 Census counts. Projections of the group quarters population above age 65 were based on their share of the 2010 Census total population. Forecasts of the number of households and household size were derived from the cohort-headship method.
Released in December 2011, these population projections forecast population change through 2050 in 5-year intervals for Kentucky, Area Development Districts, and Counties.