Vintage 2022
Released in August 2022, the Vintage 2022 Projections of Population and Households forecast population change through 2050 in 5-year intervals for the State of Kentucky, Kentucky Counties, and Area Development Districts.
Population projections are forecasts of the population in future time periods. Using a model that integrates recent historical data and standard demographic processes, estimates of future population are generated based on historic patterns. The most common population projection model used by demographers – the cohort component model – was used to generate the Vintage 2022 projections. This model captures the impact of the primary components of population change – births, deaths, and net migration – in order to forecast changes in future population.
These projections were made using a “bottom-up” approach, in which the county projections were generated first and then aggregated to create projections for the Area Development Districts and the state. Population counts by gender and 5-year age groups from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 Decennial Census and 2021 Population Estimates served as the base population, and the most currently available fertility, mortality and migration rates were used to project the change in each age cohort moving forward.
Complete Report:
Analysis-ready files:
Codebook for Projections by Sex and Five Year Age Group
