April 10, 2000

Census Bureau Director Kenneth Prewitt told a congressional oversight panel last week that he is "cautiously optimistic that we will achieve the 61% [mail response rate] on which we based budget and staffing [assumptions]."

But he also told members of the House Subcommittee on the Census at the April 5th hearing that the "public atmosphere that has trivialized and discredited the long form" has contributed to a lower-than-expected long form mail-back rate and could affect the morale of census takers who mustvisit unresponsive households to collect the information. The Director called upon Congress to explain the important uses of data collected on the long form to the public.

Dr. Prewitt reported that the difference so far between short form and long form mail response was about 12 percent, twice the differential rate at the same stage of the 1990 census. The final response difference between the two forms in 1990 was 4.5 percent, according to a 1995 National Academy of Sciences report. Each five percentage point difference in the response rate translates to a one percent drop in overall response rates, since the long form is sent only to a sample (one in six) of households.

Saying the "widespread attack on the long form could have serious consequences," the Director said he also was concerned about the reliability of some long form data if too many people refused to provide certain information, such as their income. "High non-response to the long form and high non-compliance with particular items on forms returned," Dr. Prewitt warned, could "combine to push data below our quality threshold," a situation that might prevent the bureau from releasing some of the information. Census enumerators will not follow-up with households that fail to answer some of the questions if the returned questionnaire includes basic information about the number of people living there.

Subcommittee Chairman Dan Miller (R-FL) said he was "very impressed by the complexity of current ongoing operations" and praised the bureau for reporting mail response rates publicly on its Web site. He described the public's reaction to the Census 2000 long form as a symptom of broader concerns about personal privacy in an age of advanced technology and the Internet. People should not "lay the blame for [the long form] controversy at the feet of Republicans," Rep. Miller said. The chairman blamed "some of the recent scandals involving this administration, particularly the misuse of the FBI files" for increasing distrust of government, which he said also affected response to the census. The subcommittee will hold hearings later in the year on the long form and privacy issues, with an eye toward "eliminating the long form for the 2010 Census."

Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), the subcommittee's ranking Democratic member, noted that "the hard work on the advertising campaign, partnerships, and other promotional activities appears to be paying off." She called statements about the perceived intrusiveness of the long form by some Republican members of Congress and presidential candidate George W. Bush (see below) "outrageous, irresponsible, demagoguery - pandering to fringe groups and the radio talk show circuit. They threaten the success of the Census by driving response down."

'Long form' criticism dominates public debate: Public criticism of the long form first surfaced after questionnaires were mailed to most households in mid-March (or hand delivered to non-city style addresses). Dr. Prewitt noted in his congressional testimony that leaders of the Libertarian Party had encouraged people not to answer any questions beyond the number of household residents, and that some radio talk show hosts had fueled public concern about "intrusive" and "unconstitutional" questions.

In addition, news reports widely quoted a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-MS) as saying that people should provide "the basic census information" but that if they "feel their privacy is being invaded by [some] questions, they can choose not to answer." Texas Governor George W. Bush (R) also was quoted as saying, "We want as accurate a count as possible, but I can understand why people don't want to give over that information to the government. If I have the long form, I'm not so sure I would do it either." Rep. Tom Coburn (R-OK) issued a press release saying he was "appalled and outraged by the intrusiveness of this questionnaire. ...It is ridiculous for the Census Bureau to ask personal questions that have nothing to do with their Constitutional mandate to count" the population.

In his weekly radio address on April 1, President Clinton urged Americans to fill out the short and long forms completely and noted that "every question on both forms was reviewed by Congress two years ago." He cited the allocation of federal funds, apportionment and redistricting, local decisions about where to build schools, roads, and hospitals, and business investment decisions as reasons to answer the census. "If we want to make good decisions about where we need to go as a nation, we first have to know where we are," the President said.

The U.S. Census Monitoring Board sent a letter to Director Prewitt, expressing their "continued bipartisan support for the Census 2000 long form." In the letter, a copy of which was sent to all members of Congress, Republican Co-Chair J. Kenneth Blackwell and Democratic member Everett M. Ehrlich said, "At this late date, we do not believe it is productive to renew the debate over census content."

The Census Act (title 13, United States Code) authorizes a fine up to $100 for failure to answer all census questions; intentionally giving false answers can draw a fine up to $500. Prosecution of individuals who refuse to answer the census is very rare; Director Prewitt cited only two cases since enactment of the law.

'Long form' debate continues in Congress: House Republicans, led by Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL), held a press conference on April 6 to address the controversy over the long form questions. Republican Conference Chairman J.C. Watts (R-OK) issued an "appeal to the American people to take part in the census," but also said, "If you just fill out the first six questions and send it in, that helps, because it allows people to be counted." The short form asks six questions of all household members; the person completing the form also tells if the home is rented or owned and how many people live there.

Speaker Hastert also urged people to send in their forms. But when asked by a reporter if people should complete the entire long form, he said "every American ought to fill it out to the best of their ability. If they have reservations about ... some things that they think are private," they should "make their own decision." Rep. Carolyn Maloney criticized the Speaker's statements, saying he "continued to put at risk the ability of this nation to collect quality data."

The next day, the Senate, with no public debate, adopted an amendment to its version of the fiscal year 2001 budget resolution (S. Con. Res. 101), expressing its belief that no one should be prosecuted, fined, or "harassed" for failing to answer census questions on "race, national origin, living conditions, personal habits or mental and/or physical condition." The "sense of the Senate" amendment, offered by Sen. Robert Smith (R-NH), also "encouraged [Americans] to send in their census forms." The annual budget resolution, which sets broad fiscal policy and spending limits, is a congressional blueprint that does not require the president's signature.

Census Bureau Director Prewitt issued a statement in response to the Senate action. "Census 2000 is not designed by law as a pick and choose exercise," the director said. He questioned whether the bureau's policy of making six attempts to collect information from households that did not mail back a form "would constitute harassment" in the eyes of the Senate.

Also last week, Rep. Michael "Mac" Collins (R-GA) introduced the "Common Sense Census Enforcement Act" (H.R. 4188), to eliminate the penalty for refusing to answer census questions that are not on the short form.

Mail phase of Census 2000 nears end: The mail-out/mail-back phase of Census 2000 ends on April 11. After that date, the Census Bureau will start to prepare the list of addresses to be visited by census takers in the Nonresponse Follow-up (NRFU) operation, eliminating those households in its Master Address File that mailed back a census form. However, the bureau will continue to accept and process mailed questionnaires received by April 17. It will then prepare a second list for Local Census Offices of additional addresses that will not require a personal visit.

The NRFU operation - the most time-consuming, difficult, and costly phase of the census - will run from April 27 through approximately July 7. Enumerators must make six attempts to collect data from an unresponsive household - three personal visits and three telephone contacts - before turning to neighbors, landlords, or other knowledgeable sources to obtain basic data about the residents.

GAO evaluates census progress: The U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO), the nonpartisan congressional audit and investigative agency, also testified at several recent House census subcommittee hearings. At the April 5th hearing, GAO officials reported on mail response rates, completed census operations (such as delivery of questionnaires to rural areas and enumeration of people without a fixed address), and the Questionnaire Assistance Centers. They noted that response rates varied widely at the local census office level, ranging from 30 percent to 72 percent as of Census Day (April 1). GAO staff concluded that the "update/leave" questionnaire drop-off operation in rural areas "appears to have improved the quality of the address list," but they also observed difficulties such as "finding 'hidden' housing units and accessing gated properties," as well as late delivery of training and other materials at most of the local offices they visited. The GAO testimony, "2000 Census: Progress Report on the Mail Response Rate and Key Operations (GAO/T-GGD/AIMD-00-136), also discusses the status of questionnaire processing.

The GAO issued a new report in February, entitled "2000 Census: Actions Taken to Improve the Be Counted and Questionnaire Assistance Center Programs" (GAO/GGD-00-47, February 2000). To obtain GAO reports or testimony, call 202/512-6000 (TDD: 202/512-2537) or visit GAO's Web site, www.gao.gov.

State legislative update: The U.S. Department of Justice (USDOJ) has accepted a request from Arizona Governor Jane Hull (R) to withdraw a state law barring the use of statistically corrected census numbers from the Voting Rights Act pre-clearance process. The status of the governor's request was uncertain because the state's Attorney General originally submitted the law for pre-clearance. Arizona is one of 16 states required under section 5 of the Act to obtain USDOJ approval for any change to state election laws. The law, enacted last spring, cannot take effect without the department's approval.

In its March 24th letter to Governor Hull, the Justice Department also said it would use statistically corrected census numbers in analyzing post-census redistricting plans under federal civil rights laws. "The Attorney General's review and assessment of any redistricting plan will not be restricted by the data that a particular jurisdiction elects to use in its redistricting process or its submission to us," department officials advised. The Census Bureau plans to correct undercounts and overcounts in the initial census numbers on the basis of a quality-check survey called the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation, or ACE, survey, and transmit the second set of numbers to state legislatures by April 1, 2001. Arizona is one of five states (the others are Alaska, Colorado, Kansas, and Virginia) that have enacted laws prohibiting the use of census figures derived with sampling methods for redistricting purposes.

Late last month, the Louisiana State Senate passed a bill requiring the use of unadjusted census data for redistricting. However, the state's House of Representatives previously rejected a similar measure (HB 184). Senate Bill 85 was sent back to the House, where it awaits further action.

Census Monitoring Board activities: The U.S. Census Monitoring Board issued a report to Congress on April 1, entitled "Field Observations of the New York and Dallas Regional and Local Census Offices, Alaska Enumeration, and Household Matching Training." The report was prepared jointly by the four congressional appointees (Republicans) and four presidential appointees (Democrats); both sides of the oversight panel occasionally have issued separate findings in the past. To obtain copies of the report, visit the Presidential members' Web site at www.cmbp.gov or the Congressional members' Web site at www.cmbc.gov or call 202/457-9900 or 202/457-5080, respectively. A Spanish-language version also is available.

Update on collection of race data: The guidance recently issued by the Office of Management and Budget on tabulating multiple race data for the purpose of monitoring and enforcement of civil rights law is available on the Internet at www.whitehouse.gov. The relevant document, dated March 9, is OMB Bulletin 00-02.

Stakeholder activities: Several of the Census Bureau's advisory committees will hold a joint meeting on April 14 to review the status of Census 2000 operations, as well as plans for reporting data on race and Hispanic origin for various purposes. The bureau's five advisory panels on race and ethnicity, committee of professional associations, and the Commerce Secretary's 2000 Census Advisory Committee will participate in the discussions. The meeting, which is open to the public, will be held at the Sheraton Crystal City Hotel, 1800 Jefferson Davis Highway, Arlington, VA (tel. 703/486-1111), from 8:40 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

New resource reminder: The Census Information Exchange is an electronic resource designed to keep community-based stakeholders and members of the press informed about fast-moving census operations. The Web site also encourages sharing of effective outreach and promotion strategies, as well as concerns, among communities at greatest risk of an undercount. Go to www.censusnetwork.org. The Web site is a joint project of the Census 2000 Initiative, the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights, and the Leadership Conference Education Fund.