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Population Projections
KSDC provides projections of the total population by age and sex and components of change(live births, deaths, and net migration) for all 120 Kentucky counties. In addition, for the 17 counties where major prisons are located, projections of the non-prison population are provided. Prison inmates are defined as residents of the county where the prison is located, and they are included in the total population projections. The non-prison population includes persons living in households and those residing in non-prison group quarters, for example, college dormitories, military barracks, and nursing homes. These latest projections were released in April 2009. A demographic cohort-component model is used to project the non-prison populations. Based on historical data-driven assumptions, population growth is forecast from estimates of future mortality (deaths and survivorship), fertility (live births), and migration. Age-sex cohorts are projected for 5-year intervals starting in 2005 and ending in 2050. Knowledge of future developments which will impact local population growth, for example, military and civilian employment growth at Fort Knox, is considered in developing the migration assumptions. Projections of the state and Area Development District populations are obtained by summing the county population projections. The prison population is housed in 18 facilities (federal, state, and private) located in 17 counties and 10 Area Development Districts. An inmate census of these facilities was recently obtained from telephone interviews and updated information posted on facility websites. No attempt is made to project the future size of the prison population beyond this recent canvassing.
Table 1. Projections of Total Population, 2000-2050: State, ADDs, and Counties
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